Monday, February 26, 2007

 

"General Theory " - John Maynard Keynes

From the time of Say and Ricardo , the classical economicsts have taught that supply creates its own demand. Meaning, that the whole of the costs of production must necessarily be spent in the aggregate, directly, or indirectly, on purchasing the product.

Those who think it this way are deceived by an optical illusion, which makes two essentially different activities appear to be the same. They are fallaciously supposing that , there is a nexus which unites decisions to abstain from present consumption with decisions to provide for future consumption........

Our knowledge of the factors which will govern the yield of an investment some years hence is usually very slight and often negligible.

If we speak frankly, we have to admit that our basis of knowledge for estimating the yield ten years hence of a railway, a copper mine, a textile factory, the goodwill of a patent medicine, a building in the city of London - amounts to little and somtimes , to nothing ; or even five years hence,.

Even apart from the instability due to speculation, there is the instability due to the characteristic of human nature that a large proportion of our positive activities depend on spontaneous optimism rather than on a mathematical expectation, whether moral or hedonistic or economic.

Most , probably, of our decisions to do something positive, the full consequences of which will be drawn out over many days to come, can only be taken as a result of animal spirits - of a spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction.

 

"General Theory " - John Maynard Keynes

From the time of Say and Ricardo , the classical economicsts have taught that supply creates its own demand. Meaning, that the whole of the costs of production must necessarily be spent in the aggregate, directly, or indirectly, on purchasing the product.

Those who think it this way are deceived by an optical illusion, which makes two essentially different activities appear to be the same. They are fallaciously supposing that , there is a nexus which unites decisions to abstain from present consumption with decisions to provide for future consumption........

Our knowledge of the factors which will govern the yield of an investment some years hence is usually very slight and often negligible.

If we speak frankly, we have to admit that our basis of knowledge for estimating the yield ten years hence of a railway, a copper mine, a textile factory, the goodwill of a patent medicine, a building in the city of London - amounts to little and somtimes , to nothing ; or even five years hence,.

Even apart from the instability due to speculation, there is the instability due to the characteristic of human nature that a large proportion of our positive activities depend on spontaneous optimism rather than on a mathematical expectation, whether moral or hedonistic or economic.

Most , probably, of our decisions to do something positive, the full consequences of which will be drawn out over many days to come, can only be taken as a result of animal spirits - of a spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction.

Saturday, February 24, 2007

 

"creative destruction" by Richard Foster

By the end of the 1990 s, we were well into what Peter Drucker called the " Age of Discontinuity ". Extrapolating from the past patterns, we calculate that, by the end of the year 2020, the average life time of a corporation on the S&P willhave been shortened to about 10 years as fewer and fewer companies fall into the category of " survivors". The Age of Discontinuity arose from fundamental economic forces. Among these are :

(a) The increasing efficiency of business due to dramatic decline in capital costs .
As industry shifted from goods to services, there was a consumer decline in interaction and transaction costs. These costs declined because of the advent of IT and the steady rise oin labour productvity due to advances in technology and management methods.

(b) The increasing efficienty of capital markets, due to the incrasing accuracy ( and transparency ) of coroprate performance data.

The global GDP will double in the next 20 years , creating approximately $20-$40 trillion in new sales. If, through the productivity improvements the world can save 2% of the $25 trillion new produced, the market value of those savings willrun into the trillions. Incumbent firms have an unprecedented opportunity to take advantage of these times.

The one hundred or so sompanies in the current S&P 500 that surviveinto the 2020 s will be unlike the corporate sruvivors today. They will have to be masters of crative destruction,- built for discontinuity, remade a like the market.

" creative destruction " by Richard Foster

Thursday, February 22, 2007

 

" The Weather Makers " by Tim Flannery

" THE WEATHER MAKERS " BY TIM FLANNERY
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For the last 10,000 years, Earth's thermostat has been set to an average surface temperature of around 57 degrees F . On the whole, this has suited our species splendidly, and we have been able to organise ourselves in a most impressive manner. Finally, over the century, we have created a truly global civilization.

Given that in all of Earth history, the only other creatures able to organise themselves on a similar scale are ants, bees, and termites - which are tiny in comparision and have concomittantly small resource requirements - this is quite an achievement.

Earth's themostat is a complex and dilicate mechanism. At the hearth of it lies carbon dioxide, which plays a critical role in maintaining the balance necesary to all life. It is also a waste product of the fossil fuels that almsot every person on the plante uses for heat, transport, and other energy requirements. On dead planets such as Venus and Mars, CO2 makes up most of the atmosphere, and it would do so here too - if living things and Earth's processes did not keep withing bounds.

As it is, CO2 makes up around three parts per 10,000 in Earth's atmosphere. It's a modest amount, yet, it has a disproportionate influence on the plant's tempature. Because we create CO2 every time we drive a car, cook a meal, or turn on alight, and because the gas lasts around a centure in the atmosphere, the proportion of CO2 in the air we breath is rapidly increasing.
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Tom Flannery has written many books on Ecology. This particular book, " the weather makers " got 4.5.

From Publishers WeeklyStarred Review. Mammologist and paleontologist Flannery (The Eternal Frontier), who in recent years has become well known for his controversial ideas on conservation, the environment and population control, presents a straightforward and powerfully written look at the connection between climate change and global warming. It's destined to become required reading following Hurricane Katrina as the focus shifts to the natural forces that may have produced such a devastating event. Much of the book's success is rooted in Flannery's succinct and fascinating insights into related topics, such as the differences between the terms greenhouse effect, global warming and climate change, and how the El Niño cycle of extreme climatic events "had a profound re-organising effect on nature." But the heart of the book is Flannery's impassioned look at the earth's "colossal" carbon dioxide pollution problem and his argument for how we can shift from our current global reliance on fossil fuels [...]. Flannery consistently produces the hard goods related to his main message that our environmental behavior makes us all "weather makers" who "already possess all the tools required to avoid catastrophic climate change." Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc.

Link here :

http://www.amazon.com/Weather-Makers-Changing-Climate-Means/dp/0871139359/sr=1-1/qid=1172163587/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1/002-9888563-0212052?ie=UTF8&s=books

Another book, ' The Future Eaters ' ( those who eat our future ) has gotten 4.5 star rating.

From Library JournalDuring the ice ages, when the sea level was low, Australia, New Guinea, Tasmania, and smaller islands reemerged as a single landmass known as Meganesia, connected to Antarctica. Harsh conditions selected those species most adapted to the cold: amphibians, marsupials, monotremes?species with lower metabolic rates and low energy needs. When Meganesia separated from Antarctica 36 million years ago, species extinctions began. Isolated from the rest of the world, Australia developed unique flora and fauna to become a land rich in minerals and fossils but having the poorest soil of any continent because of geological inactivity. The first Australians consumed without replacing resources they would need in the future; later-arriving Europeans destroyed even more. In this fascinating, thought-provoking ecological history of his homeland, Flannery, a senior research scientist at the Australian Museum in Sydney, reveals how humans?and other species?transplanted out of their original habitat become "future eaters" by the indiscriminate consumption of a land's resources. Flannery voices his theories and opinions while also presenting opposing viewpoints, creating a well-balanced, extremely readable treatise. Highly recommended for all collections.?Gloria Maxwell, Kansas City P.L., KansasCopyright 1995 Reed Business Information

Link here :

http://www.amazon.com/Future-Eaters-Ecological-History-Australian/dp/0802139434/sr=1-4/qid=1172163587/ref=sr_1_4/002-9888563-0212052?ie=UTF8&s=books

Another one has gotten a 5-star." Astonishing Animals: Extraordinary Creatures and the Fantastic Worlds They Inhabit (Hardcover) .

Book Description

From the authors of A Gap in Nature, a breathtaking visual adventure showcasing ninety of the world's most astounding creatures. Sumptuous birds of paradise, amazing soft-shell turtles, frogs that look like tomatoes, and terrifying fish (including the deep-water angler fish from Finding Nemo) are just some of the extraordinary creatures that can be found in Tim Flannery and Peter Schouten's new book, Astonishing Animals. Superbly illustrated in lifelike full-color paintings, Astonishing Animals details ninety of the world's most amazing animals from around the world. In this book you will find the Hairy Seadevil, the spectacular Sulawesi Naked Bat, and in the depths of the limestone caves in Slovenia, the Olm, a pink, four-legged, sightless salamander that lives for a hundred years. In fascinating vignettes, Flannery offers the true evolutionary tale of how each of these bizarre creatures came to look the way they do. Alongside each historical account is a stunning hand-painted color reproduction (life-size in the original painting) by Schouten. Filled with purple-faced apes, jagged-toothed dolphins, and antlered lizards, Astonishing Animals is a remarkable collection of the world's most incredible creatures and the stories behind their remarkable survival into a modern age.

Link here :

http://www.amazon.com/Astonishing-Animals-Extraordinary-Creatures-Fantastic/dp/0871138751/sr=1-6/qid=1172163587/ref=sr_1_6/002-9888563-0212052?ie=UTF8&s=books

Wednesday, February 21, 2007

 

THE NEW FINANCIAL ORDER " BY Robert J. Shiller.

The primary subject matter of finance is , the management of risks. Picture vast international markets that trade major macroeconomic aggregates such as the total outputs of countries like the US.., Japan, Paraguay, and Singapore. Or Indexes of single family home prices both in cities - from New York to Paris to Sydney - and in regions, such as shoreline properties on the Riveiera or rubber plantations of Indonesia . Portfolio investors will be able to take positions in a wide array of such markets with little cost.

International markets for human capital will emerge as well for occupations and the professons, to the careers of actors and performers to common labour.

Thes markets will facilitate the creation of livelihood insurance policies on every major career and job category, and home equity insurance policies on the value of everyone' s home..

By lightentning the burden of risk,a new democratic finance will encourage all of us to be more venturesome. As a thought expreiment, consider a young woman from India, living in Chicago, who wantes to be violinist. She finds it worrisome to borrow the money for her training given that her future income as a musician is so uncertain. But the new financial technology enalbles her to borrow money on-line that need not be fully repaid if an index of future income of violnisits turns out to be disa ppointeing. The loan makes it easier for her to go into her favioured career by limiting her risk.

" NEW FIANCIAL ORDER " BY ROBERT J SHILLER.

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He wrote this book, " Market Volatility " which has got 4.5 star rating at amazon. Link is
http://www.amazon.com/Market-Volatility-Robert-J-Shiller/dp/0262691515/sr=1-4/qid=1172079542/ref=sr_1_4/002-9888563-0212052?ie=UTF8&s=books

Book Description
-----------------------------
Market Volatility proposes an innovative theory, backed by substantial statistical evidence, on the causes of price fluctuations in speculative markets. It challenges the standard efficient-markets model for explaining asset prices by emphasizing the significant role that popular opinion or psychology can play in price volatility.Offering detailed analyses of the stock, the bond, and the real estate markets, Shiller discusses the relations of these speculative prices and extends the analysis of speculative markets to macroeconomic activity in general.Robert J. Shiller is Stanley B. Resor Professor of Economics at the Cowles Foundation, Yale University.

Another book of his, ' Irrational Exhuberance' got 4 rating.

From Library Journal

Taking his book's title and thesis from Alan Greenspan's 1996 description of investors, Shiller (economics, Yale Univ.) studies the current booming U.S. stock market in historical terms. His research into past U.S. and international markets indicates that during every speculative bubble there was always widespread consensus that high valuations were justified by each market's special circumstances. Every large market correction seemed to result from popular consensus rather than specific events or news. Shiller says that past bull and bear markets, though often based initially on sound fundamental reasoning, fed upon themselves to go beyond what the facts justified. He challenges the efficient market theory, demonstrating that markets cannot be explained historically by the movement of company earnings or dividends. He concludes that the current U.S. stock market is a speculative bubble awaiting correction. While the book certainly belongs in all academic business collections, public libraries should also purchase it as a counterweight to the plethora of get-rich-quick investment guides.-Lawrence R. Maxted, Gannon Univ., Erie, PA
Link here :

http://www.amazon.com/Irrational-Exuberance-Robert-J-Shiller/dp/0767923634/sr=1-1/qid=1172079542/ref=sr_1_1/002-9888563-0212052?ie=UTF8&s=books

Saturday, February 17, 2007

 

'cycles ' by Maddy Dychtwald

age as a defining parameter ( 17 feb 07)

" We are at the dawn of a Life Cycle revoluton. Spurred by the convergence of a number of poweful cultural , technological, and demographic forces, the way we live, work, and buy -is beginning to change radically.

We no longer live life in a series of predictable life passages. We are breaking free of age related lifesyle expectations that defined us. We are no longer buying produts and series based on this neat , age-oriented marketing model.

What is happening is that, we are moving from a rigid linear approach to life - to a more flexible , cyclic life ; a new path that ins't as straight or narrow as it used to be. There are more curves in the road and a multitude of divergent side paths that some of us might choose to try. Perhaps the most important is the fact that the roles and activities we choose are much less likely to be determined by how old we are !

It not unusual to see a 35-year old or a 65-year old starting a new career or business ; a 30-year old or a 60-year old getting married ; a 45-year old or a 25-year old graducating from a school.

Age is no longer the ultimate definer of who we are, what we're doing and how we feel on the inside,what groups we're a member of, or the products and service we demand from the markeplace.

We are being liberated from a life of one-way passages to a life cycle with a nearly unlimited set of choices, options, and possibilities availagle at ANY age - to anyone with the vision and courage to seize the day !!

" CYLCES" by MADDY DYCHTWALD

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