Tuesday, March 20, 2007
How Countries compete ? - Richard Vietor
" Let us think a bit about the near term future using scenarios. We should start with Singapore, the most developed state in Souteast Asia. For the foreseeable future, Singapore is being incresingly pressed by China and India on the low end, and more competitively by Korea, Taiwan, the US, and Europre on the high end. Either its strategy of low taxes and networked culsters, particularly biotechnology, will work - or it won't.
If it works, we can expect Singapore to become a services powerhouse in Southeast Asia, quickly catching up with the income levels of Europe. But if not, what would happen to Singapore's growth as it loses lower-end jobs and investments to China ? Developing scenarios for China is a more striking exercise...
China has been growing at more than 8 % annually and running larger surpluses on its current account....
If Hu Jintao encourages consumption , allows the renminbi to apreciate, and gradually liberalises the polity, his trading relations ( and thus foreign relations ) will doubtlesslyl improve.
If he agressively helps banks write off bad debt, creates a reasonable system of governance, and further privatises the state-owned sectors, then, China can continue to grow fast for at least another decade.
But if China continues on its present path, growting exports too rapidly without liberalising trade, then trouble will certainly be coming. I suppose the odds favour continued growth and gradual reform.
Richard Vietor book review page at amazon is here :
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw/002-3711215-2568031?url=search-alias%3Dstripbooks&field-keywords=%22Richard+Vietor%22&Go.x=6&Go.y=11
One book of his, " Business Management and Natural environment " has gotten a five star rating at amazon.
Book DescriptionBusiness Management and the Natural Environment presents the new set of managerial and strategic challenges posed by environmental questions. By drawing from concepts throughout the traditional business management curriculum and applying them to this new set of managerial challenges, the authors demonstrate the impact of environmental problems on every functional area: marketing, production, finance, control and strategy.
If it works, we can expect Singapore to become a services powerhouse in Southeast Asia, quickly catching up with the income levels of Europe. But if not, what would happen to Singapore's growth as it loses lower-end jobs and investments to China ? Developing scenarios for China is a more striking exercise...
China has been growing at more than 8 % annually and running larger surpluses on its current account....
If Hu Jintao encourages consumption , allows the renminbi to apreciate, and gradually liberalises the polity, his trading relations ( and thus foreign relations ) will doubtlesslyl improve.
If he agressively helps banks write off bad debt, creates a reasonable system of governance, and further privatises the state-owned sectors, then, China can continue to grow fast for at least another decade.
But if China continues on its present path, growting exports too rapidly without liberalising trade, then trouble will certainly be coming. I suppose the odds favour continued growth and gradual reform.
Richard Vietor book review page at amazon is here :
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw/002-3711215-2568031?url=search-alias%3Dstripbooks&field-keywords=%22Richard+Vietor%22&Go.x=6&Go.y=11
One book of his, " Business Management and Natural environment " has gotten a five star rating at amazon.
Book DescriptionBusiness Management and the Natural Environment presents the new set of managerial and strategic challenges posed by environmental questions. By drawing from concepts throughout the traditional business management curriculum and applying them to this new set of managerial challenges, the authors demonstrate the impact of environmental problems on every functional area: marketing, production, finance, control and strategy.
